Since 1993, the SPY (S&P 500 ETF) has posted year-to-date gains of +20% only seven times.
What’s interesting?
The following year was green six out of those seven times, with an average return of +11.13%. 📈
History shows that when momentum is strong heading into the end of the year, it often carries forward—especially when paired with other favorable factors.
The Election Year Effect
This year isn’t just any year—it’s also an election year. (2024)
Historically, election years tend to be bullish for the markets.
Here’s why:
- Incumbent governments often work to boost economic sentiment.
- Policy stability and “status quo” messaging help calm market nerves.
- Markets like certainty—and elections, despite the noise, often bring that into focus.
Put simply:
Election years, combined with strong momentum like we’re seeing now, create a historically favorable backdrop for continued gains.
Final Thoughts
While no pattern is guaranteed, history leaves clues.
Strong year-end momentum + an election year = a powerful combination traders and investors should respect.
Stay focused. Stay prepared.
And remember: market history doesn’t repeat exactly—but it often rhymes. 🎯
Educational content only, not financial advice. Trading involves risk and most traders lose money. Read our Disclaimer.
